The "Truth" (Dumb Name)
It is so frustrating to me that the posts on Truth Social are called "truths" because that is just... improper English. I put it in the same category as calling an individual "they."
Anyways, here's the post.
On Thursday evening, Trump fired off an angry post about the Gulfstream G500/G600/G700/G800 not being certified in Canada. In response, he threatened to ground the entire Global Express fleet in the United States and a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft (business jets) being sold into the US. As my grandpa would say, "them's fightin words."
The Backstory
So I need explain a bit of what he means, because to the layperson the post probably sounds like gibberish.
It really falls into two separate, yet equal, situations.
How Type Certification Works
Type certification is the process in which a civil aviation authority approves the operation of an aircraft to operate on their registry. The "big three" are FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) and TCAA (Transport Canada).
Most manufacturers focus on these three when bringing an aircraft to market, as it represents the majority of the customer base who will buy their aircraft.
Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements
There are agreements between the big three that are designed to make certification easy for manufacturers to get aircraft certified. It's basically a triangle agreement, with the newest one being FAA and EASA active since 2011.
The process is this:
- Primary Certification: the manufacturer gets the Type Certificate in their home country. For Gulfstream, Textron, etc. this is FAA, for Dassault/Airbus its EASA, and for Bombardier its Canada.
-
Validation Process: The other authorities validate the certificate as opposed to starting from scratch with a full independent certification.
- Option 1: Streamlined (basic design) Mostly paperwork with minimal additional testing
- Option 2: Technical (novel/complex designs): May require some additional review of specific systems.
In theory, the agencies are working together to essentially "confirm" that the other type certification will suffice for theirs. There are some minor differences between them, but manufacturers are designing to fit these regulations so that they can sell airplanes.
The Standard Timeline
Typically, once an aircraft is certified in its home country, the other regulatory agencies are soon to follow. This is the system working in the way that it is supposed to. Sometimes its together, other times there is a lag in the certification.
I think the reason for the major delay for Canada was the fact that no one was operating these Dassault models in Canada until right around the time of the certification.
See how nicely the FAA and EASA followed Bombardier's timeline of certification? This is a nice, normal flow. All customers happy.
Here's a few from Textron. Textron has an interesting strategy in that they typically do modifications to their type certificates (See: What's Old is New), but in searching the Transport Canada Website I couldn't find the Longitude anywhere and I couldn't find the 680A specifically (may have been grandfathered in from the Citation 680).
And this brings us to Trump's big problem:
Notice, the G500 and G600 are not exactly new aircraft and quickly approved by EASA. If 2 out of the 3 certify it, why wouldn't Canada? I think that's what we would all like to know...
Now, there is no public information about when/if Gulfstream has submitted to Transport Canada for their type certificate. Likely immediately, because that is the typical process.
I think a lobbyist for Gulfstream finally got through to Trump.
The irony is not lost on me that DJT has never actually owned a Gulfstream (he has been a Boeing and Cessna guy, so at least he kept it Made in the USA.)
Unfair Trade Practice?
Trump is making the argument that Gulfstream is being unfairly choked out of the Canada market. While I understand the sentiment, the reality is that Canada is just not that large of a market for large cabin private jets. For instance, here's the competitors to those non-certified aircraft:
Global 5500: Canada - 5 United States - 31
Global 6500: Canada - 9 United States - 73
Global 7500: Canada - 12 United States - 90
Winner: United States. So these threats are far more threatening to United States based companies and operators (NetJets being the largest) of these aircraft. It also has knock on effects for the Challenger 300/350/3500 lines of aircraft which are operated in even larger quantities in the United States.
Although it would be a "win" for Gulfstream, it would be a huge loss for Berkshire Hathaway, Flexjet, and many other United States based companies.
Can he ground the Bombardier fleet?
I really don't think so. Based on all of my research, the FAA obviously has to make the call to ground a fleet. They typically only do this because of safety issues, not because the aircraft have become the political football of the day. It would really disrupt people who give money to Trump's campaign, and I don't think he can afford to piss off every Netjets, Flexjet, Airshare, Wheels Up, Fly Exclusive, and Vista Jet customer, as they have the deepest pockets to influence outcomes.
How does this all shake out?
I don't think that it lasts, and it may not even last through the end of the day today. A 50% tariff on Bombardier parts and aircraft would be detrimental to many many American companies. I think that this is all a part of the "Art of the Deal" and he's throwing out something crazy to see how Canada will react. Which, they already have, in the most Canadian way possible.
Until next week,
Preston Holland
P.s. Forward this to a friend who owns a Global or a Challenger and tell them it's all (probably) gonna be ok. Then ask them to come pick you up for lunch in their plane and fly you somewhere cool.
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