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Welcome to the twenty sixth edition of Private Jet Insider.
I'm thankful to have found a spot in your inbox, where you get to read my ramblings about private aviation. It's been a long time since I have written, and for that I apologize. I am going to try and get better at cadence. A bit of news:
The podcast I co-host called The VIP Seat recorded an episode on AB Jets' brand new Challenger 3500 at altitude. The best experience is on YouTube but you can also find it anywhere you listen to podcasts.
FastJets has crossed 2,000 users and crossed 1600 empty legs live on the platform, which will greatly enhance the offering of empty legs. The feedback has been awesome.
I find that the more I use AI, the less I write. I write this newsletter straight from my fingers, although AI does assist in crunching the data. I'm going to try and write more often, because its a skill that I think we're losing as a society. Hope to be in your inbox a bit more over the summer and into the fall. I covet your topic input and ideas.
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Update on Subscriber Count
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The Death of The Midsize Jet
The Midsize Jet is dead.
Now, this may sound shocking because there are plenty of Lear 60's and Hawker 800XP's still flying around today. You've likely flown on one in a charter fleet. It's a provocative headline to get you to open the article so I can explain my reasoning behind this claim...
If you remember a few months ago when I wrote the article "What's Old is New", I wrote about clean sheet designs. The 80's and 90's saw the birth of the "midsize jet." The Hawker 800 in 1984, The Learjet 60 in 1993, and the Citation Excel (an iteration on the V) in 1998, all during "The Golden Age of Clean Sheet Design." Each eventually had incremental improvement (Hawker 900XP, Lear 60XR, and Citation XLS+).
The midsize jet is defined by a few things.
Interior Characteristics of the Midsize Jet
Interior height with the drop floor around 5 feet 10 inches (for us short people, this means a standup cabin)
Interior width between 5 feet 6 inches and 6 foot
Seating capacity of 6-8 passengers depending on configuration and model
While there are some differences (the Learjet 60 is much faster in long range cruise), the midsize class has fairly comparable performance metrics.
Midsize Jet Range
Range varies. The Citation Excel is the distinct laggard with 1500nm seats full range, which makes it a niche. The leader was the Hawker 800A allowing it to get close to coast-to-coast.
So, what qualifies a midsize jet?
The midsize jet is defined by cabin size, performance, and range (in that order.) While they are not perfectly interchangeable, they are similar enough to land them in the same category. Aircraft categorization is not an exact science. It's not F150 versus Chevy 1500.
The Praetor 500 and Citation Latitude are Not Really Midsize Jets
There are many probably reading this and doing this at your screen, saying "well what about the Praetor 500 and Citation Latitude?"
Leonardo Dicaprio Look GIF by Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
My argument is they are not traditional midsize jets.
Their ancestors are Supermids. The Latitude comes from the Citation Sovereign and the Praetor 500 from the Legacy 500. Parents are Supermids.
The cabin interior dimensions, although less seating capacity, is more similar in height and width to other Supermids than it is to the traditional midsize class.
In terms of performance and operating cost is where the argument does have some gaps, which I will admit. They are more similar to a traditional midsize jet versus a Supermidsize jet.
Where they are most dissimilar is in Wingspan, where the new generation take up as much hangar space as a Supermid.
The argument isn't perfect, but in my opinion they are not a 1-for-1 replacement of midsize.
That said, I'll give it to you and the rest of the data will include the Latitude and Praetor 500 as midsize jets. I leave you with this Venn Diagram to support my theory.
The Hollowing Out of the Midsize Category
Let's look at what's happening to the fleet. If you look at the US fleet benchmarked to 2019, the post-covid trends have been white hot for private aviation, with one exception: The Midsize Jet.
The reality is that the midsize jet fleet in the United States is shrinking.
Data Source: WingX
The replacement rate (new deliveries) of midsize jets is not keeping pace with the retirement of older fleet.
When Bombardier purchased a bankrupt Learjet in 1990, they brought the Lear 60 to market in 1993 under their leadership, rounding out their lineup between the Lear 31A and the Challenger 601. An evolution on the 55C, the Lear 60 was a true midsize aircraft. The Lear 60XR production officially ended in 2013, with Bombardier anticipating those customers to move into the Challenger 300.
Around the same time, in 2013, Hawker discontinued the 125 series (what became the Hawker 800 to Hawker 1000) and was subsequently purchased by Textron the next year in 2014 as a part of Textron's acquisition of parent company Beechcraft.
With two manufacturers completely exiting the midsize jet manufacturing business, its no wonder that the midsize fleet cant keep up.
Fractional and Branded Fleet Operators Driving Change
If you look at The Big 3 (NetJets, FlexJet, VistaJet), Midsize Fleet is staying flat or relatively shrinking compared to the other growth. NetJets numbers are driven by their flock of Latitudes (they're basically the only Latitude operator in existence).
Data: WingX
When NetJets, FlexJet, Vista, Wheels Up, or any other large operator turn over their fleet, the aircraft still stick around.
For instance, many readers of this newsletter have likely flown on Baker's Challenger 300's, which are old FlexJet aircraft. After 10 years, the operators will sell aircraft, usually with high times and mismatched engines, often landing with charter companies or in possession of a high net worth individual looking for a deal.
That means that the next 5-10 years the Midsize Jet market size should be rather predictable.
The operators are taking up the lion share of the new midsize deliveries, though. General trends are moving towards larger cabin (Supermid +) or down to the "super light" aircraft in the Phenom 300, CJ4, and to some extent the PC24.
The Citation Ascend is the Dying Breath of the Midsize Jet
Citation Ascend on the ramp
The Citation Ascend is the last remaining aircraft that is unmistakably a midsize jet. The Textron iterative design has few better examples than the Excel -> Ascend evolution. You can guess the predecessors of The Ascend simply by seeing the aircraft on the ramp.
The avionics, fuel efficiency, and technology have improved over time since the days of the Excel. The biggest change is adding a flat floor, making an already tight cabin even tighter. The flat floor is indicative of customer preferences, mirroring that in a traditional Supermid Aircraft.
My guess is that Netjets has a set of customers who refuse to fly light jets, but have no need for the Latitude. Thus, the Ascend becomes a viable option in their lineup. The Excel and the XLS continue to be strong in-demand aircraft, with only 2.6% for the XLS, 5.4% for the XLS+ (according to JetsIntel) being for sale currently.
In Memory of the Midsize Jet
While this was a fun newsletter to write, I think there are three conclusions to draw here:
Consumer preferences are shifting towards larger, more capable aircraft. Hence why Midsize is morphing into Super Midsize
We desperately need to come up with a new categorization system for aircraft.
There really isn't any replacement for the old-school midsize jets
I was having a conversation with a friend who helps corporations do fleet planning. He said that Lear 60 and Hawker 800/900 operators are holding onto their fleets longer because there is no true replacement for those aircraft.
As the fractional fleets have come in and dictated clean sheet design, they have left small operators of mid sized aircraft stuck. The general consumer sentiment that has pushed us to taller, longer, and faster aircraft.
I don't think we will see anyone come out with a replacement, either, because the fractional business is just too good for the OEMs, and its growing fast.
Rest in peace, Midsize Jet. We will miss you.
Until next week,
Preston Holland
P.s. Forward this to a friend who has a Midsize Jet. They will appreciate that they now have a rare commodity.
